2025/09/04 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

The daily chart is ranging, the 4-hour is ranging too, and the 1-hour is sitting in a support zone, but it’s hard to tell which way it will go.
I’m viewing the 15-minute as a sell, but the 1-hour also looks like it may be forming a double bottom.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the range, it’s a chance for buying the dip.
The idea is to buy at the neckline after a double bottom forms in the 1-hour support zone.
Target is 148.5

Scenario B
This 15-minute range is technically a sell, but it’s the kind of range where buying from the range low would also be fine.
Enter when price reaches the edge of the range and the risk-reward becomes favorable.
That’s the kind of spot it is, but the room to run is narrow, so there may not be much to gain.
If you’re assuming a range breakout, the targets are the same as in Scenario A or Scenario C.

Scenario C
If price breaks below, the 1-hour has made a complete bearish shift.
I’ll be looking to sell the rally.
Target is around 147.5

Review

It was Scenario A.

After breaking above, price didn’t rise right away, because this is a level where role reversal on the 1-hour chart (H1) comes into play.
In other words, buyers hold back out of caution about selling, and new short positions put downward pressure on price.

It rose after that, but not in a sharp, one-way move, so I exited when it started turning down (making lower highs). 13 pips

If there hadn’t been a data release coming up, this would have been a spot to move the stop loss to breakeven and hold, though.