2025/09/12 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

The bias is technically to the buy side, but this isn’t a situation where we can expect much room to run.
It’s a pure ranging market, so it’s fine to wait patiently for a proper pullback or retracement before entering.

Scenario A
If price keeps the current flow and makes new highs, I’ll buy, aiming for a support/resistance (S/R) flip at Line A.
That said, I’m not really sure about the expectancy.
Target is 147.9

Scenario B
The idea is to buy from a 15-minute-level S/R.
On the 1-hour chart, it looks like a bearish shift followed by another bullish shift.
It’s a similar idea to Scenario A.
The target is also about the same as Scenario A.

Scenario C
A break below Line C would be a bearish shift.
Between B and C, the bias is still more on the buy side, but it’s hard to buy aggressively, so it depends on how the chart shapes up.
If Line C breaks, the downside becomes clear on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, so price would head back toward the daily chart range low of 146.4.
Target is 146.4

Review

It was Scenario B.

Went long from the red circle at the clear support/resistance (S/R) level.
Then took profit as price formed a double top near the 147.9 target. 60 pips

The move played out as expected, so this one was easy.