2025/09/17 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Price has dropped to the range low on the daily chart, and the question now is whether it bounces again from here or breaks below.
On the 15-minute chart, it’s not a situation where I can sell right away, so the plan is to wait for a setup to form before taking a position.

Scenario A
If price breaks above Line A, this is the pattern where it continues higher again.
Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are showing a downtrend structure, so I’ll treat this as a large retracement and aim for a short-term trade.
Target: 147

Scenario B
I see Line A as the top of the current range.
However, on a smaller timeframe, there has already been a bullish shift.
I’ll look to go short once price rises to around Line A and that upward move breaks down.
Target: 145.9

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break of the recent low.
I can also picture price retracing up to around the yellow line.
However, the yellow line has consistently acted as support, so be careful not to get caught by a false breakout.
Target: also 145.9

Review

It was Scenario B.

I went short as price pulled back to the recent high near Line B and started to drop from there.
I hold and wait to see whether it breaks lower, but the 5-minute chart (M5) starts turning up (making higher lows), so I exit. 38 pips