2025/09/18 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

My bias is to buy, but this price zone is the rally high on the 4-hour chart (H4), so buying carelessly here is risky.
I want to identify the key levels and buy from as low as possible.

Scenario A
If price breaks above Line A, the bias on the 4-hour chart (H4) flips as well.
I’d like to buy on pullbacks, but 147.5 just above is a concern.
The target is that level for now.
After that, I’ll rework the strategy.

Scenario B
A long from the range low.
Line B is a highly reliable support, so I don’t want to miss this chance.
The target is the same as Scenario A.

Scenario C
If price breaks below Line B, I’ll switch to selling.
However, the yellow line at 146.4, the range low on the daily chart, is just below, so I can’t expect much room to run.
Target: 146.4

Review

It played out as Scenario A.

The long entry is at ○1, where the pullback after the break formed support/resistance (S/R).
○2 is fine as the next-best option.

However, either way, the premise is to close out before the data release at 9:30 pm JST (12:30 UTC).
Entering from ○1, that’s about 30 pips.

I’ve written this a few times, but there’s no need to force a trade around a data release.
The market has been stagnant through August and September, but even so, you can earn plenty if you wait for your chance.
If you get caught in a big adverse move on a data release and end up in a situation where even the margin stop-out doesn’t kick in, you’ll go through hell.