2025/09/22 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

The bias is basically to buy, and there isn’t much on the sell side, but we’re getting close to a key level on the daily chart, so this is a price zone where I’d expect more traders to start closing out.
For day trading, it’s still a situation where buys can be targeted.

Scenario A
This is the pullback after price breaks above the high from here, but it’s better to wait for a proper pullback.
I don’t think this is an environment where price keeps rising and rising.
The target is around 148.5.

Scenario B
Buying the dip from around Line B.
This is the most realistic scenario.
The target is likewise around 148.5

Scenario C
If price breaks below Line B, switch to selling in the short term.
That said, the 1-hour chart still looks like it’s in an uptrend, so this scenario is about quickly grabbing a short-term drop.
The target is 147.9

Review

It turned out to be Scenario C.

I waited for a pullback expecting Scenario B, but price went straight into a break below.
I then went short on the subsequent retracement at the red circle.

Price reached the target, but since it had broken below the line, I held the position for a while.
I then took profit when a long lower wick formed. 22 pips