2025/09/24 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Still ranging. The price is sandwiched between selling on the 1-hour and buying on the 4-hour.
Within the current range, both selling and buying are possible.

Scenario A
If the price breaks Line A, the 1-hour also makes a bullish shift.
This is a spot where I want to target a pullback and ride the move up.
The target is around 148.2, but depending on conditions, up to 148.5.

Scenario B
If the price can’t break out of the range, go short.
I can sell with the 1-hour key level at my back.
I think it’s rising in the short term, so I’ll time the entry carefully so it doesn’t turn into countertrend trading.
The target is 147.5

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below Line C.
In this case, I’d go short on the judgment that the 4-hour will also drop another leg.
The target is 147.2, but if it breaks below that, down to around 146.7.

Note that Line C is the 4-hour support line, so buying from Line C is also a valid strategy.
Something like the blue arrow.

Review

It was Scenario A.

After breaking slightly higher, the situation was a bit ambiguous, but we could buy based on the clean S/R flip bounce off the most recent upward wave and the price turning up (making higher lows) on the 5-minute chart (M5).

After entry, price rose almost in a straight line and reached the target, but since it kept climbing without even printing a bearish candle at the target line, I held.
In the end, I took profit where it started to look like a double top at the next pink line up. 84 pips