2025/09/25 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

After a big rally, it’s hard to jump in right away.
If the line at the current price zone holds firm, I’d like to buy, but it would be easier to buy after one more leg down.

Scenario A
Breaking the high again from here would mean a bounce off the yellow line that has long been resistance on the daily chart.
I think it’s possible, but forming a small pullback first feels more natural.
With a target of around 149.1, there’s almost no room to run.

Scenario B
The yellow line at B is a current support candidate, but it hasn’t recently acted as support/resistance (S/R), so buying based on this line alone is a bit risky.
I think it’s fine to go long after confirming the line is actually holding.
Target: 149.1

Scenario C
If price breaks below the yellow line, the view is for one more leg down.
A drop to form a pullback on the 4-hour chart.
The target is the blue line around 148.2–3.

Review

No trade

Price-wise, you could buy at ○1 under Scenario B.
However, it bounced back in a V-shaped reversal, so I think it was hard to buy.
If you had a limit order placed near the range low, you would have gotten in.

Technically, you could buy at ○2, where it was making higher lows, or at ○3, the pullback after it briefly broke above.
○3 in particular was easy if you were watching the 5-minute chart (M5) closely.

However, ○3 came right before a data release, so it’s a tough call whether to open a new position.
It wasn’t a release that called for much caution, so trading without worrying about it is a valid stance, but you need to accept the risk of an adverse move.