2025/10/01 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

On the daily chart, price is at a spot where it might turn into a pullback, but the 4-hour chart is bearish.
On the 1-hour chart (H1), it feels like there may have been a bullish shift.
For day trading, I want to target a move that heads higher once again.

Scenario A
If price breaks above Line A, the 4-hour chart also turns bullish for the time being.
The overall downtrend doesn’t change, but this scenario aims to catch the retracement rally.
Target is 148.5

Scenario B
I’m picturing a bounce from around the current price.
If price breaks below Line B, it won’t bounce right away, so I’ll wait and see.
Target is the recent high at 148.2; if it breaks above that, it’s the same as Scenario A.

Scenario C
A short on a break below the recent low.
However, this area is a support zone on the daily chart.
There’s a support line just below around 147.5.
If price breaks lower, I think it’s better to wait and see, and after a clear break, aim for a retracement on the 1-hour chart (H1) level.
Or, after it breaks lower, short once it retraces back up to around Line B.
Target is around 147.5

Review

No trade.

Under Scenario C from this morning’s plan, a short from the red circle was technically possible.
However, as I wrote this morning, the green line just below acts as support, so it was hard to jump in carelessly.

This drop seems to have been driven by US fundamentals, and in cases like this, price breaks through key levels easily, just as it did here.