2025/09/30 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

I’m viewing the current range as a sell, but the higher timeframe is a buy.
Price action has also stalled, so I need to keep in mind a possible reversal to the upside from here.

Scenario A
A break above Line A would mean a breakout from the range.
The idea is a rise after a pullback forms on the daily chart and the 4-hour chart (H4).
The target at a day-trading level is around 149.1.

Scenario B
If price can’t break above Line A, I’ll sell.
However, it’s not a situation where price keeps falling until it breaks below Line C.
If selling, I’ll consider it near Line A once the upward momentum has completely died out.
There isn’t much room to run, so skipping it is fine too.
Target: 148.5

Scenario C
I think Line C is strong as support.
If price breaks below Line C, I’d like to go for selling the rally.
Target: 148.2

Also, with a 4-hour chart (H4) bias, a scenario of buying from near Line C, as shown by the blue arrow, is possible.
If Line C holds firm, a buying strategy is also an option.

Review

It was Scenario C.

Short at the red circle, on the retracement after the break below.
The target was broken right away, so I held, aiming for further downside.
Took profit once the decline stalled and price started showing signs of turning up (making higher lows). 60 pips