2025/10/03 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

It looks like price has started rising again from the lower bound on the daily chart, but it’s still not very clear.
The key point is whether it breaks below around 147.5.
For day trading, I’m waiting for a pullback and looking to buy.

Scenario A
Buying the dip after a break above the recent high.
There’s no horizontal level in price zone A, so I’m also allowing for a pullback down to around the pink line at 147.6.
The upside target is around 148.2, but I doubt it will rise all the way there without any pullback.

Scenario B
A pattern where price forms a range first and then rises.
I think this would make for a more natural wave shape on the 1-hour chart (H1).
I’d like to buy, picturing a rise from around line B.
Target: 147.9

Scenario C
If price breaks below line B, I’ll consider going short.
There’s a good chance the 1-hour chart (H1) hasn’t made a bearish shift yet, so I’ll decide while watching how the chart shapes up.
Target: around 147.2

Review

It turned out to be Scenario C.

The price action didn’t shape up very well.
The entry is a short from circle ①, but since it comes during a rise after touching the 1-hour pullback low, it’s not an entry I’d be very keen on.
After the entry, price makes higher lows and climbs, so it ends in a breakeven exit.
It’s late Friday night, so there’s no need to force a trade.

The light red circle just before circle ① is the Scenario B entry point, but right before it the price formed something like a double top, so a buy entry isn’t possible.
The long would only come after waiting and seeing whether Line B holds firm.
As it turned out, price kept falling, so there was no opportunity.