2025/10/07 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

This is basically a market where I’m looking to buy, but right now it’s in a tight range.
This is the spot to judge whether the current price zone holds, or whether it turns into a sell on a day-trading level for a while.

Scenario A
Buying the dip after a break above the recent high.
The target is around 150.9, a key level on the daily chart.

Scenario B
A buy scenario from Line B.
Right now it’s bearish in the short term, and it feels like both buyers and sellers are coming in.
The idea is to wait and see a bit longer, and if Line B holds firm, buy from below.
The target is the recent high around 150.6. If it breaks above that, up to 150.9.

Scenario C
Sell if price breaks below Line B and also breaks the recent low.
If it breaks below there, there’s a chance it heads toward filling the gap, but the near-term target is around 150.

Review

It was Scenario A.

Long from ○1, the pullback after breaking Line A.
Take profit when the green line target was reached.
Technically it’s a spot where you could hold, so continuing to hold is also an option, but if you want to avoid the data release at 9:30 pm JST (12:30 UTC), I recommend taking profit for now. 28pips

After that, you can go long from ○2, where another pullback forms.
From there it rises with almost no pullback, so it’s a carry overnight into the next day.