2025/10/09 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Around 1 pm to 2 pm JST (04:00 to 05:00 UTC) was the buying opportunity, but right now I’m waiting.
Will it drop back into the range, or rise from a shallow pullback?
I’ll keep looking for a long while judging the timing.

Scenario A
Price is being held back at Line A, but looking more closely, it has broken above the recent high.
If it keeps rising from here, I’ll wait for another pullback and go long.
Target is around 153.4

Scenario B
The pattern where price comes back into the range again.
Will it fall to around Line B, or bounce from near the pink line above it?
I’ll wait for a pullback with both of those patterns in mind.
Target is the same as Scenario A.

Scenario C
If price breaks below Line B, I’ll consider selling.
There’s a pink line near C as the recent low, so watch out for a bounce from there.
Basically, though, I’ll wait for a retracement on the assumption that I’ll be selling.
Target is around 152.

Review

Price moved within the range, and there were no entries that matched the morning scenario.

Treating it as a short-term bearish shift, you could go short from ○1.

After that, price breaks above the high, so you could also go long from ○2, where it acts as support/resistance (S/R).