2025/10/10 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

The situation hasn’t changed much from yesterday.
Momentum is clearly fading on the daily chart, so an early short like the blue arrow might be an option.

Scenario A
Price makes another new high.
In this case, it doesn’t look like it will keep climbing for now. I see it going up to around the upper blue line near 153.4 at most.

Scenario B
Buying from the lower end of the current 1-hour range.
Price may find support around the current price zone, so a break below it would be a short-term sell.
I think selling like the blue arrow is also fine.
In that case, the area around Line B is where to take profit.
If the decline stops around Line B and price starts turning up (making higher lows), I’d like to look for a long.
The target is Line A.

Scenario C
If price breaks below C, I switch to a bearish bias.
I’ll go short, looking to sell the rally.
The target is around 152.

Review

No trade.

I was looking to buy under Scenario B, but price kept turning down (making lower highs) the whole time, so there was no opportunity.
It then broke to the downside, but there was no retracement like the one I expected in Scenario C.

As I wrote in Scenario B, if you were selling short-term along the way, you could go short from the red circle.
Taking profit when it reached the B line would have netted around 25 pips.