2025/10/13 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Price is at a crossroads: either it heads back up, or it drops another leg.
For now, it looks like it wants to go lower.

Scenario A

I’m treating line B as the range high, but price could stretch up to around the pink line A, so this scenario is to buy the pullback after price breaks above the pink line A.
Target: 153.1

Scenario B

If price can’t get above line B, I’ll sell.
There’s also a pattern where it doesn’t retrace back to line B and starts turning down from around the current price.
In that case, I’ll sell based on the red line near the current price.
Target: 151

Scenario C

The range low is also hard to call.
I’m watching line C, but when selling the rally after a break below line C, be careful: the low made at the very end of last week is a concern.
Target is likewise around 151.

Review

No trade

Price never broke out of the range and kept turning up (making higher lows) the whole time, so I chose to wait and see.
For scalping, it was a day where you could have kept buying.