2025/10/15 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Technically it’s a sell, but price has reached a level that looks like it could be a pullback on the daily chart, so it’s probably better to keep a bullish scenario in mind as well.

Scenario A

I see Line C as the key level on the daily chart.
If price breaks above Line A, I’ll expect a temporary rebound and look to buy.
Go long on a pullback after the break above Line A, targeting 151.6

Scenario B

If price can’t get above Line A, I’ll sell, but I need to watch out for support at Line C.
If it starts turning up (making higher lows) around Line C, it’s better to close out flexibly.
The target is Line C around 150.9, but I’d like to see a break below.

Scenario C

If price breaks below Line C, further downside can be expected. But Line C is a key level on the daily chart, so it often happens that price looks like it has broken below, then rises within a few hours, and in the end it was just a lower wick on the daily chart. So I need to trade without letting my guard down.
Target around 150.2

Review

It was Scenario A.

The pullback after the break of Line A made for a very clear setup.
Took profit when price hit the 151.6 target. 40pips

This was right before the CPI release, and given the market context there was no reason to hold, so this is a spot to close out without hesitation.