2025/10/17 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Both the 4-hour and 1-hour charts point to selling, but price is in a zone where the daily chart could bounce.
It seems best to trade with that environment in mind.

Scenario A

This scenario is to buy the pullback after price breaks above Line A.
Even above Line A, the overall flow is still down, so the aim is to catch a short-term retracement.
The target is around 150.4, so depending on the entry point the risk-reward may be poor, in which case I’ll pass.
It’s better to think a real move up only starts once price clears 150.5.

Scenario B

Selling the rally after price returns into the range.
As mentioned at the top, the daily chart could still reverse.
Looking only at the 1-hour and 15-minute charts it’s a sell, but if price moves unexpectedly, you need to make the call to exit early.
Target around 149.4

Scenario C

Selling the rally on lower timeframes after price breaks below the low.
This scenario sells on the assumption that the decline continues.
Target is also 149.4

It’s Friday, too, so I don’t really feel like trading all that aggressively.

Review

It played out as Scenario A.

It was Scenario A, but the market context has shifted a bit.
Price reversed higher after hitting the 149.4 target I’d written in Scenario B, and the daily chart is now strongly pointing to a bullish reversal. That was the backdrop for this long from Line A.

Entry would be from ○1 or ○2.
If you entered at ○1, take profit when a bearish candle appeared before the data release. Or holding is fine too.
If you entered at ○2, I’d hold until just before the New York close and exit around 5:30 am JST (20:30 UTC the previous day).
Either way, that’s about 20 pips.

It’s the weekend, so don’t carry positions overnight.