2025/10/22 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

I basically have a bullish bias, but the 4-hour chart (H4) looks like it has reached its target, so there’s a chance it pulls back for a while.
In that case, the strategy is to short down to the H4 pullback, then aim for the next leg up.

Scenario A

Buying the dip after a break above the recent high.
Keep an eye on the red line below A. If price breaks above it and then gets an S/R flip bounce, I think it’s fine to start buying.
Target is 152.5

Scenario B

Looking for a bounce near B in the current price zone, or near the C line one level below.
I’ll watch the chart pattern and buy once I judge that it has turned up.
The target is a bit tricky, but if buying from around C, the first target is around the red line at 152.
If buying from around B, about 152.2

Scenario C

If price breaks below the C line, it starts moving to form the H4 pullback.
I’ll short on a retracement and aim to take it down to around 151.

Review

This was Scenario B, but in the end it was one you didn’t need to force.

Price action was entirely range-bound, so there were two options: wait for a break either up or down before getting in, or take on the risk down to the range low and hold the position.
If you hold, you assume from the market context that price will break higher, set your stop-loss level below C, and just leave it.
The win rate drops, so deciding not to touch setups like this is also a valid call.

At the first red circle you can’t make that judgment yet, so you enter, but if you don’t want to take the risk, you exit once you judge that price can’t break the red line around 152. About 15–20 pips.