2025/10/24 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

It looks like one more push could take price up to the recent high on the daily chart.
I’m watching whether it keeps rising from here, or forms a proper pullback first and then rises.

Scenario A

If price rises without giving me a chance to buy in the current range, I’ll wait for a pullback after it breaks above the recent high.
Target is 153.2

Scenario B

I think we’re near the bottom of the range right now.
If the B line holds firm, I’d like to buy.
The only thing bothering me is that, just before that level, the 1-hour chart (H1) has formed a double top and is turning down (making lower highs).
Target is the same as Scenario A.

Scenario C

This is the scenario where price dips for a while.
Even in this case, rather than a big drop, it would be more like a pullback forming on the 4-hour chart.
This scenario aims to catch a short-term move down.
The target is 152.2, but the overall flow is to the buy side and this trade is an adverse move against that flow, so the exit decision needs to be made quickly.

Review

It played out as Scenario B.

You could go long at ○1, where the rightmost candlestick in the morning scenario chart flipped from a bearish candle to a bullish candle.
It fell just short of the target, but take profit where it starts losing momentum just before the pink target line. 45 pips

After that, you could go long at ○2 under Scenario A.
It’s the pullback after breaking above Line A.
After entry, it didn’t extend and just drifted around. The market was in wait-and-see mode until the CPI release in the evening.
Exit early and call it a day. 10 pips