2025/10/29 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Price has turned higher off the 4-hour support.
This is a spot where I want to wait for a pullback and actively look for buys.

Scenario A

If price keeps rising from here, I’ll wait for a pullback somewhere, and since I’m buying off horizontal levels, Line A is a candidate.
However, the stop-loss level would be far away, so in some cases it may be better to wait for a proper pullback.
It’s hard to imagine price continuing to rise with its current momentum, so I’m not really expecting Scenario A.
Upside target is around 152.6

Scenario B

I think the ideal rally would be one that forms a pullback around Line B.
This is a level everyone is waiting at, so the rise after the reversal might be fast.
The target is likewise around 152.6, but if you expect the daily chart to rise and the weekly chart to close as a bullish candle this week, holding is also an option.

Scenario C

If price breaks below Line B, the basic plan is to wait and see and rebuild the strategy.
If it breaks below Line C, I’ll consider selling.
The target is 151.5, but normally, before price breaks below Line C, the chart will have formed waves and the market context will have changed.

Review

The range continued.
You can buy from ○1. Price came back to the pullback low, which is a point where the risk-reward becomes very good.
On the morning chart I had built the scenario around an upswing, so I didn’t clearly write out a scenario for a range above the C line after a break of the B line.
Basically, the bias stays bullish until the C line breaks, but since it turns into a range, you should time your entry only after carefully checking how firm the lines are.
After entering, you either exit early on the judgment that price can’t make a new high, or you get a breakeven exit on the subsequent drop.

After that, it becomes hard to judge whether the C line has broken or not, but you can buy at ○2, where price shows another move up.
It’s late at night, though, so I think you don’t need to take it.