2025/11/06 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Basically, the uptrend is still intact, so this is a spot to wait for a pullback.
Price has been dropping in the short term, so I’d like to wait for downside stalling and then buy.

Scenario A

Line A has come up many times since the end of October, and it’s a line that has kept capping the upside the whole time.
It’s a key level: if price breaks above it, USD/JPY moves up into the next price zone.
The green line just above Line A is also resistance, so if you’re going to buy, it’s safer to wait for a pullback after a clean break above.
Target is around 156

Scenario B

Ideally, I’d be able to buy from around Line B.
I’m picturing downside stalling somewhere around here.
Target is around Line A

Scenario C

Even if price breaks below Line B, the bigger picture is still a buy.
For day trading, I think you can go for the short-term drop.
Target is around 153.3
If price drops this far, take profit; it’s a spot where it’s fine to buy if there are signs of downside stalling and a reversal.

Review

It played out as Scenario C.

In the first half, you could judge ○1 as downside stalling and go long.
The decline may have stalled, but it hadn’t made a short-term bullish shift, so you exit when a bearish candle forms at a clear support/resistance (S/R) level.

After that, wait and see, then go short from ○2, the retracement after the break below.
Taking profit when price reaches the green target line is fine. 40 pips

Price keeps falling without any short-term turning up (making higher lows), so if you’re watching the chart late at night, holding is also fine.
If you hold, you take profit where price turns up at the line around 152.8. About 80 pips