Nov 12, 2025 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Price broke above the high, so I thought it would keep rising, but it’s coming back down.
Now I need to judge whether this turns into a false breakout and drops further, or whether it bounces once more.

Scenario A

If price makes a new high again from here, buying is the only option.
Ideally, I’d like to have a long position before that happens.
Target is around 155.2

Scenario B

I’m watching the green line near the letter B as a pullback candidate, but I’m also allowing for a drop down to around the C line.
Until price breaks below the C line, I’m only thinking about buying, so this scenario is about spotting a short-term change in price action and buying into it.
Target is the same as Scenario A, around 155.2

Scenario C

If price breaks the C line and also breaks the recent low, it goes back into the 1-hour range.
If selling, the range low is the target, with around 154 as a guide.

Review

It was Scenario B.

This came after a new high on the daily chart, but price didn’t extend with much momentum; it was more of a cautious, tentative rise.
It didn’t reach the target, so I took profit as it came down from the next line up. 26 pips
Since it’s carving out an upward wave, you could hold a bit longer and wait and see instead of taking profit, but given the time of day I closed out.
Also, on the 4-hour chart (H4) this rally is the first leg of a range breakout, so it may form a pullback back to the range high once more.

If you entered at the blue circle with Scenario A, it was either a small profit or a breakeven exit.