2025/11/17 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

The daily chart is rising, but there isn’t much of a case for buying.
At the day-trading level, if anything, it leans toward selling.
It might be fine to just wait and see until price reaches a higher timeframe key level.

Scenario A

A break above Line A would open up an upside move.
There isn’t much momentum, so the plan is to properly wait for a pullback before getting in.
The target is around 155.2, assuming it breaks the 4-hour high.

Scenario B

The range between Line A and Line C is hard to read.
It leans toward selling, so the idea is to sell from the top, but I want to be careful not to jump in at a half-baked level.
I think buying from around Line C is also fine.
If selling, the target is down to Line C; if buying, the target is up to Line A.

Scenario C

If price breaks below Line C, I’ll aim for the 4-hour range low once again.
The target is around 153.7, but I want to watch out for the pink line around 154.1.

Review

It played out as Scenario A.

In the end, the price didn’t drop and just kept rising.
It was capped several times before breaking through Line A, which made for a clear role reversal, so you could go long at the red circle after the breakout.
The rally stalled at the blue line near the 155.2 target, so that’s where to take profit. 45pips
It was an easy move to read.