2025/11/26 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

My bias is basically bearish, but this decline is forming a pullback on the daily chart.
On the 4-hour chart (H4), price is reaching a price zone where it should soon find support, but the daily pullback might be a bit lower?

Scenario A

A break above Line A would mean a bullish shift on the 1-hour chart (H1).
However, on the 4-hour chart (H4) it doesn’t look like a situation for a clean move up, so I expect it to turn into a range with messy price action.
If buying, the target is around 156.8.

Scenario B

Right now I see it as a range from Line A to Line C.
It dropped sharply yesterday, but it has reached the support zone on the 4-hour chart (H4), so momentum has faded and it’s ranging.
The basic strategy is to sell from the top of the range, but if the bigger picture starts making higher lows, buying could also be an option.
If selling from the top, the target is Line C.

Scenario C

If it breaks below Line C, I’ll expect another leg down and look to sell the rally.
The target is 155, or around 154.6 below that.

Review

It was Scenario A.

Price fell just short of the target, so I took profit when it started turning down (making lower highs). 18 pips

On the 4-hour chart, price was falling in waves of lower highs, so holding was absolutely off the table here.