2025/11/24 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

The bias is to sell, but it does feel like the decline is bottoming out.
On the 4-hour chart too, price has reached just the right spot to form a pullback and move higher.

Scenario A

I think a strategy of buying once price breaks above Line A is fine.
That said, it’s unclear whether it will rise cleanly.
The near-term target is around 157.2.

Scenario B

Inside the range is a zone I see as a sell for day trading.
If price can’t break above Line A, I’ll sell.
The target is Line C.
However, the downward momentum has weakened, so if price drops to the range low and stops falling, buying from there is also an option.

Scenario C

If price breaks below Line C, I’ll expect another leg down and go for selling the rally.
The target is around 155.7

This price zone is a resistance zone on the weekly chart, so a move where price dips once this week and forms a wave is also possible.
Even if price breaks higher in Scenario A, it could turn out to be down by the end of the week, so be careful.

Review

It was Scenario A.

After the upside break, I went long on the pullback at the red circle, which acts as short-term support/resistance (S/R).
Took profit where price was losing momentum after reaching the 157.2 target. 32 pips