2025/11/21 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

The bias is still to buy for now, but price has reached a key level and momentum is fading.
The 1-hour chart (H1) has also turned into a range, so I don’t really feel like buying aggressively.

Scenario A

Since we’re in a range, this scenario is to wait for a pullback after price breaks above the recent high, then buy.
Rather than Line A acting as support/resistance (S/R), the idea is to wait patiently for a pullback after price clears Line A before buying.
Target is 158.2

Scenario B

I haven’t drawn a horizontal line for it, but I see the bottom of the current range around Line C.
If price starts turning up (making higher lows) around here, I’d like to buy.
The target is the same as Scenario A, but there’s a chance price won’t be able to break out of the range.
If it stalls at Line A, I’ll close out.

Scenario C

I’d like to sell if price breaks below Line C, but keep in mind that the overall trend is still up, so careful trade management is needed.
Target is around 156.8

Review

It was Scenario C.

There was no sign of a move higher, and price broke through the low.
I went short at the red circle, on the retracement after the break below Line C.

Price broke through the yellow target line, so I hold and wait and see.
I take profit when a double bottom forms at the blue line below. 55 pips

Since price is below the yellow line, holding a bit longer instead of taking profit is also an option.