2025/09/30 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

The daily chart is making lower highs, and the 4-hour chart has also made a bearish shift.
It feels like price could start dropping from around the current level.

Scenario A
If price breaks above Line A, it becomes hard to sell right away, which makes things tricky.
If buying, there isn’t much room if we only aim for the recent high, so I’d only consider it on a deeper pullback.
Target is 200

Scenario B
I’m picturing a sell from Line A, but a drop from the high marked with the faint highlighter is also possible.
We’ll need to read the price action and take on a certain amount of risk.
Target is 199.1

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break to the downside.
Target is also 199.1

Review

It was Scenario B.

Price moved just as I wrote this morning.
It made another attempt at the area where a double top had already formed, failed to break through, and I went short as it came back down.
It reached the target, but the momentum was strong, so I held and took profit when the drop stalled at the next line down. 80 pips