2025/09/25 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

It looks like the market has turned to an upward flow for now.
In the short term, it’s been falling since the morning, but it’s getting close to the support zone.
I’ll wait for downside stalling before going long.

Scenario A
The recent high, or rather the blue line around A, is a key level.
If price breaks above it, a break of the daily chart high comes into view.
Target is 200.6, then around 201 after that.

Scenario B
The 15-minute chart (M15) is currently ranging, but my basic stance is a bullish bias.
It’s a matter of waiting for the timing: when to buy?
I see the B line as the range low, but the M15 pullback low is in the current price zone on the chart, so price could stall around here and rise.
I’ll judge it by watching how the lower timeframes develop.
Targets: first the blue line at A, then 200.6.

Scenario C
If price drops below the B line, I’ll sell for now.
On the 4-hour chart (H4), this is still a retracement within an ongoing decline, so my view is that a break below the B line makes continuation of that decline more likely.
Target is 199.5.

Review

It was Scenario B.

Right after the morning scenario, I went long at ○1, where price stopped falling in the short term and started turning up.
It broke above the blue target line, but quickly dropped with a long bearish candle, so I took profit. 25 pips

After that it fell, and I took it as a short-term bearish shift.
I went short at ○2, the retracement from that move.
This one was easy to read, as price was capped on the pink line many times on the 5-minute chart (M5).
I took profit where the decline stopped. 38 pips