2025/09/24 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

Based on the higher timeframe context I’m looking to sell, but in the short term it’s fine to buy.
The pink line around 199.5 acts as support.

Scenario A
Buy if price breaks above Line A. I want to make sure I don’t miss the chance and get on board.
The target is around 200.2–200.3, but depending on how things develop I’d like to hold up to around 200.6.

Scenario B
A short from around Line A.
However, if price rises this far, it’s a bullish shift in the short term, so rather than shorting right away, I’ll wait for the right timing before entering.
The target is 199.3, but the pink line at 199.5 still needs close attention.

Scenario C
A short on a break of the recent low. This isn’t a very attractive scenario,
because the daily chart support line at 199 is close just below.
Getting into a position early by selling the rally after a break of the pink line at 199.5 is also an option.

The market context has barely changed for about 2 days.
On the 1-hour level, either selling or buying looks fine, but be careful not to get burned by trading in the dead middle of the range.

Review

It played out as Scenario A.

A long from the pullback after the break to the upside.
Price dipped against me a little after entry, but the 1-hour chart (H1) was also showing signs of a move higher, so I held.

Price did rise to the target, but since that would be late at night into the early morning, I set a limit at the pink line just before it and called it done. 30 pips