2025/09/29 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

I’m waiting for a pullback within the uptrend.
Once the downside stalls, it looks like price could follow the 4-hour uptrend and rise to the key level on the daily chart.

Scenario A
If price breaks to the upside, I’ll wait for a pullback again.
However, the initial target is around 200.6, so depending on how deep the pullback is after the breakout, the risk-reward may not be good.
I’ll probably need to decide while watching how the chart shapes up.

Scenario B
I see the area around the current price as a candidate for the pullback.
It’s a buy until price breaks below the B line.
Price has already dipped to around the B line once and left a lower wick, so a rise from here is also possible.
However, the short-term picture is bearish, so I’ll wait a bit longer and aim for a long once the downside stalling is clear.
Target is 200.6

Scenario C
If price breaks the B line, I’ll consider it a bearish shift.
In this case, I expect a move on the 4-hour chart down one more leg to look for a pullback.
However, the C area acts as support, so if you’re aiming to sell the rally after the break below B, watch the risk-reward.
If the retracement is shallow, it’s also fine to wait for the break below C before going in.
Target is the C line, around 200–199.8

Review

It was Scenario C.

Just as in the scenario I drew up in the morning, this is a short from ○1, the retracement after the break below Line B.
This spot also formed a double top on the short-term chart, so it was easy to read.

You could take profit when the target of 199.8 was reached, but it’s also fine to wait and see for one more wave.
If you took profit, you could short again from the next retracement at ○2.
This is the “aim for it after C is broken” pattern I wrote about in Scenario C.
Take profit where price starts turning up (making higher lows) near the lower line. 55 pips

After that, ○3, where price retraces once more, is also a good opportunity.
The entry logic is the same as in Scenario C.
Price breaks the recent low, but take profit where it starts turning up (making higher lows) right at the pink line. 46 pips

It was a day of easy-to-read price action for the first time in a while.