2025/10/01 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

Since price spiked up briefly a moment ago, for now I’m thinking it might be a buy for day trading.
The higher timeframe is bearish, though, so it’s also fine to wait until the bullish structure breaks and look for a short.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the high once more, I’m fully on a bullish bias.
That said, the overall environment is bearish. The idea is to quickly grab the move up to around 199.5.
If it keeps rising after that, I’ll wait for another pullback.

Scenario B
At the day-trading level, I’m looking to buy.
A bounce from the line around B is the main scenario.
All the higher timeframes are heading down, but USD/JPY has formed a similar shape and has made a bullish shift on the 1-hour chart as well.
My thinking is that GBP/JPY might get pulled up along with USD/JPY’s rise.
The target is likewise around 199.5.

Scenario C
If price breaks below line C, that’s a bearish shift.
Judging that the daily chart’s downtrend is continuing, I’ll look to sell the retracement.
I’d like to aim for around 198.3.

Review

It was Scenario C.

It looked like it wanted to go up, but in the end it fell.
In the first half I waited with Scenario B in mind, but price never found support at Line B, so there was no opportunity.

After that, it dropped and broke below Line C, and I went short at the red circle, where the S/R flip bounce occurred.
I took profit where the decline stalled after overshooting the target. 50 pips