2025/09/10 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

On the 15-minute level it’s still a buy, but on the 1-hour this is a price zone for selling the rally.
There’s no momentum, so it’s fine to start selling around Line A.
If price breaks above Line A, the daily chart turns into a bullish candle.

Scenario A
Buying the dip after a break above Line A.
Every timeframe is ranging, so this isn’t a situation where you can aim for a big move.
Target is 199.8

Scenario B
For now, it’s a buy until price breaks below Line B.
The basic strategy is to buy around Line B.
However, the 1-hour is in a spot for selling the rally, and I’m expecting a scenario where price fails to break Line A and drops, so even if you buy from Line B, you can’t expect much room to run.
Target is 199.45

Scenario C
The bearish scenario.
Looking to sell the rally after a break below C.
Initial target is 199.
That’s because it looks like a level that could act as support on the 4-hour.

Review

It played out as Scenario A.

I went long at the red circle, which was the pullback after the range breakout.
However, since price was still in the middle of a retracement on the 1-hour chart, it didn’t rise smoothly and instead climbed while repeatedly chopping up and down.
With the upward momentum seeming to fade, plus a data release coming up, I took profit on the upper wick around 8 pm JST (11:00 UTC). 19 pips

In the end, price did rise to the 199.8 target, but it dropped sharply for a moment on the data release at 9:30 pm JST (12:30 UTC), so if you had still been holding the position, you would have been stopped out there.