2025/09/04 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

The 4-hour chart has no clear direction, and the 1-hour leans more toward buying.
On the 15-minute, I’m looking at selling for now.
Price is in a range, so the strategy is to sell from the top.

Scenario A
If price breaks out above the range, I’d like to go for buying the dip, but it’s hard to call the higher timeframe an uptrend, so I don’t think there’s any need to rush.
Even if it breaks higher, it could come back into the range before forming a pullback.
Target is around 199.5

Scenario B
The short-term flow is to the downside, so trading with that flow is the best option.
I see the range high at around 199.2, and the idea is to sell once the rise on the lower timeframe stalls near there.
Target is 198.8. If it breaks lower, that’s a bonus

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below the range.
Target is around 198.6.
The risk-reward is quite likely not very good, but of course there’s also a chance it breaks lower.
Even at most, I think it probably only drops to around 198.3.

Review

Price went up.

I’d like to buy from the faint circle with Scenario A, but it overlaps with a data release, so I can’t touch it.
Once things calm down, I can go long from the red circle.
It’s a pullback after making a new high.

Then I take profit where price forms a small double top near the recent high on the 1-hour chart and starts to drop. 33 pips