2025/08/28 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy
Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.
Will it break above 199 or not?
It feels like we’ve been fighting at this level ever since the end of June.
For now I’m looking to buy, but I still expect selling pressure from 199.
Scenario A
A pullback after price breaks 199 and also clears the recent high.
Price has repeatedly made fakeout-like moves at this line, so be careful if you’re buying.
Even if it breaks 199, the higher timeframes are still in a range, so there’s no need to rush.
Target: 199.2–3
Scenario B
Within the range between A and B, there are both sells and buys.
There’s not much room to run either, so basically it’s fine to wait and see.
If you do trade it, it’s just a matter of entering when a nice setup forms at the edge of the range.
Scenario C
The pattern where price is capped at 199 and moves lower for a while.
In this case too, a big move is unlikely right away, so the idea is to take your time, pick your timing and sell.
Target: around 198.4
Review
It was Scenario C.
In the end, price failed to get above 199 and ended up losing momentum.
After the break below, you could short at either of the red circles.
The first red circle is the easier one to enter.
Price makes a new low after the entry, so I think holding is fine, but if you prefer to take smaller gains, it’s also a valid trade to take profit once as price rises back up, then short again at the second red circle.
Since it gets late at night, I set a limit order at 198.4 and called it a day. 32 pips
Also, this was before I wrote the morning strategy, but shorting from the double top at the blue circle was another option.
In theory, it’s still a situation where you’d look to buy, but in a ranging market like the current one, selling at the top of the range and buying at the bottom is effective.
The 4-hour chart is starting to look like it wants to drop, so selling with a high risk-reward ratio, using 199, which has capped price many times, as your basis, isn’t a bad idea.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
