2025/08/22 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

It feels like the market has turned back to the upside, but on the 4-hour chart we’re at the rally high.
For day trading, the plan is to look for buys from the current range.
Just don’t forget to stay wary of the 4-hour high.

Scenario A
Strictly speaking, the 4-hour rally high is around the pink line at 199.5, above A.
That’s only 20 pips from the current range high.
I see a real move up as starting only after price clears the pink line, so Scenario A is just a quick trade to grab the short move up to the pink line.
If it rallies straight through, that’s a bonus, though.
Target: 199.5

Scenario B
A scenario of buying from a pullback within the range.
The range low is the lower pink line at 198.8, but judging by the shape of the chart, price may not drop that far.
In that case, the pullback candidate is the green line at 199.
I’m also keeping in mind a long after a double bottom forms at the green line.
Target: 199.5

Scenario C
If price breaks below the pink line, it becomes a “4-hour selling continues?” kind of situation.
Target: 198.4

Review

It was Scenario B.

Within the range, price didn’t pull back to the lower bound, and I went long on the rise from the 15-minute-level pullback low.
It’s the rise from the green line I had drawn in the morning.
The risk-reward was good, and since it was a long from a reversal on the 5-minute chart (M5) level, it was a textbook, easy setup.

After that, price reached the 199.5 target and stalled, so I took profit. 40 pips