2025/08/14 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

The 4-hour chart (H4) also looks like it may have made a bearish shift, and price is barely holding on at the support line.
These scenarios assume a correction on the daily chart.

Scenario A
If price holds above the green line at the current level and also breaks through the pink line, I’ll consider the uptrend to be back on.
The plan is to wait for a pullback and then go for a move up to around the recent high.
Target: 200

Scenario B
Price has dropped quite a bit recently, so it would be more natural for it to form a retracement first and then head lower.
The retracement high area to watch is around the pink line at 199.5.
Target: 198.5

Scenario C
If price breaks below the green line from here, the decline would feel confirmed on the 4-hour chart (H4) as well.
The chances of a drop to the H4 pullback low at 198.3 would increase.
In this case too, I’ll wait for a retracement before going short.
Target: 198.3

Watch out for the UK data release at 3 pm JST (06:00 UTC)

Review

Price dropped, so it was Scenario C.

You could wait for a retracement and enter at either of the two red circles.
After entry, price doesn’t make a new low and starts turning up (making higher lows) on the 5-minute chart (M5), so I’d be wary of a reversal.
Depending on how it moves, this is a spot to consider a breakeven exit.

However, price shoots up on the data release at 9:30 pm JST (12:30 UTC).
Here, even if you had moved your stop to breakeven, the sharp move most likely caused slippage and a loss.
I’d estimate around -18 pips.
After that, there’s nothing to do.

I wasn’t paying much attention to it, but maybe the market is sensitive to employment data right now.
Since FX is OTC trading, whether your stops actually get filled properly at times like this is one of the criteria for choosing a broker.