2025/08/15 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

Yesterday’s rise on the US data suddenly turned this into an awkward setup.
It looks like price will be stuck in no man’s land for a while.
The strategy is to figure out the range and trade from its edges.

Scenario A
The textbook play is to buy once price breaks above the blue line around 199.8, but that’s still the daily chart resistance zone.
If I buy on Scenario A, it would probably be only after price ranges above the blue line and I can confirm it’s holding firm.
Target: 200.5

Scenario B
The flow is down for now, so I’m looking at selling the rally.
I’m assuming the blue line is the range high, but I won’t know until price draws a few more waves.
For now it’s my first choice.
Target: from the C line at 199.2 down to the green line around 199.
I think that area is the range low.

Scenario C
Basically, I’m thinking of selling if price breaks below the pink S/R.
As I wrote in Scenario B, there’s a chance of a bounce down to the green line, so I’ll decide while watching how the chart shapes up.
Target: around 198.3.
There’s a decent amount of room to run, so I think it’s fine to jump in after price breaks through the green line.

Review

There was no entry point that matched the scenario.

At the red circle, you could go short on the scenario that price keeps falling to the bottom of the range.
The risk-reward is good, too.
Take profit where price breaks slightly past the green line and bounces back. 34 pips