2025/08/20 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

There was a perfect selling spot this morning, but right now I’m waiting for a retracement.
Price has broken below the 199 key level, so I have a bearish bias, but it’s still just barely within the price zone where the 4-hour support could hold.
That’s the one thing to watch out for.

Scenario A
Buying the dip after a break above the recent high.
This is the scenario where price bounces off the 4-hour support and rises again.
I think it’s unlikely to play out before the UK data release at 3 pm JST (06:00 UTC), so I may have to rework the strategy after the data release.
As things stand, the target is 199.8

Scenario B
The first candidate for a retracement is the green line at 199.
This line has been working consistently since last month.
The target is 198.3

Scenario C
If price falls further without much of a retracement, I’ll go short on an S/R flip at the recent low or at 198.8 just above it.
The target is 198.3

Review

No trade.

There was no particular spot to get in.
Price did move, but you can’t enter on a move like this.

At the blue circle, a bullish shift was likely, so this was a spot where I was considering a long.
However, as you can see on the 5-minute chart (M5), price kept turning down (making lower highs) the whole time, so there was nowhere to buy.
After that, it broke the pullback low and dropped without even forming a retracement.