2025/08/21 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

If you shorted the morning high, hold. If you’re not in yet, wait for a retracement.
A break below here would turn the 4-hour chart fully bearish as well.
I’d like to get a short on somewhere.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the pink line at 198.4, it’s a short-term buy.
However, the bigger picture is still bearish, so it’s better to wait for the short-term rally to break down at some point.
If you want to play the move up to the retracement high area, the target is around 198.6.
There isn’t much room to run.

Scenario B
Shorting within the current range.
Price has already formed a double top near Line A and started to move lower.
It’s a situation where you could wait for 5-minute chart (M5) level retracements and keep shorting.
The bigger target is around 197.
The near-term target is 197.6

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break of the recent low.
The target is the same as Scenario B.

Review

No trade.

Price broke above the neckline of the double top and moved into a short-term uptrend, so I was looking to sell the rally around Line A, but it kept turning up (making higher lows) and ended up rising.
I was hoping for a move like the light red arrow, but price rose instead and there was no entry opportunity.

After that there was no pullback, and price rallied as far as it could.
It swung up and down repeatedly on the data releases, and in hindsight the chart shows a long from Line A was possible at 11 pm JST (14:00 UTC), but that wasn’t a situation I could get involved in.