2025/08/29 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

For now I’m looking at this from the sell side, but on the 4-hour chart the blue Line C area is roughly the range low, and price is in the process of building a bottom.
I need to be careful not to end up selling at the lows.

Scenario A
If price breaks through the Line A area, that’s a bullish shift on the 1-hour chart as well.
And in the background, there’s a bounce off the 4-hour range low.
Looking at the bigger picture, the idea is that price goes back up to take out 199 once again.
The day-trade target is 198.8

Scenario B
A scenario where I sell from the upper part of the current 15-minute range.
Around Line A, price is rising in the short term.
It has already formed a double bottom below, and at the scalping level buyers are currently on the attack.
I’ll go short after confirming that the short-term rise has stalled.
The target is 198.3

Scenario C
If price breaks below Line C, I want to ride the downward move.
I’m aiming for a short from a short-term retracement.
The target is 198

Review

It turned out to be Scenario B.

The wicks make it a little hard to see, but on the 5-minute chart (M5) price came back up to Line A, the range high.
The move here was fast, though.
This was a spot where you wait for a double top on the lower timeframe, so if you waited, you got left behind.
Waiting for half a day only to get this treatment is painful, but these things happen.
If you had a hunch and managed to get in, take profit when the Scenario C target is reached. About 50 pips.

After that, you can go long from ○2, the pullback after the bullish shift on the 15-minute chart.
This long is backed by the fact that this area is the recent low on the 4-hour chart.
Ideally you’d take profit when price comes back up to Line A again. About 45 pips.
Since it’s late night into early morning, and the weekend on top of that, I think taking profit when the upward momentum stalls along the way is also fine.