2025/09/03 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

Price is rising right now, and if you want to trade it short term, this is a spot to aim for a move up to around A or B.
That said, I think a strategy of waiting for the retracement on the 1-hour chart, which has made a bearish shift, is fine.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the Line A area, buy.
In that case, it’s a move aiming for the recent high once again.
Target is 200.1

Scenario B
I see the retracement reaching roughly Line B.
If it goes above Line B things get a bit messy, but until it breaks Line A, the possibility of selling still remains.
Also, price could start falling from around the current level, in which case I’d look for a bearish shift on the lower timeframe and aim for a short.
Target is 198

Scenario C
If it breaks below, I’ll wait to sell the rally.
However, the daily chart isn’t heading down, so for now I think a big drop is unlikely.
So if entering on Scenario C, I’d consider S/R at Line C as a candidate, but it’s better to also anticipate a pattern where price comes back into the range and then falls.
I see the target at around 198 as well, so if there isn’t enough room to run, I’ll pass.

Review

It was Scenario B.

The idea is to set up a short around ○1 after price stalls at Line B.
It drops for a while, but since it may head for the high again, take profit once the 5-minute chart (M5) shifts. 30 pips

After that, wait for another selling opportunity from Line B, but price breaks above it and makes a bullish shift.
You can go long around ○2, the pullback after the shift.
This is a somewhat awkward position, but close out when a bearish candle forms just before the data release. 40 pips