2025/09/08 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

The pair gapped up this morning and rallied, and now the question is whether it will form a pullback and keep rising.
I want to look for buying the dip while staying cautious since we’re near the highs on the daily chart.

Scenario A
Price is already near the top of the daily chart range, so jumping in just because it broke higher, assuming a trend has started, is risky.
Wait for a proper pullback to form before going long.
I’m also allowing for the possibility that it pulls back as far as the B line.
Target is 200.6

Scenario B
Long from the current range low.
On the chart, price is right at a spot where buying looks reasonable, but it’s also fine to wait for lower timeframes to start turning up (making higher lows) before entering.
Target is also 200.6, but if it fails to make a new high on the 15-minute chart, exit and watch out for a drop.

Scenario C
If price breaks below the B line, I’ll lean toward selling for now, but the idea is to wait for a retracement after it breaks the morning low.
If the gap fills, the target is down to 199.2, but it depends on how the chart shapes up.
Overall, it’s best to trade without forgetting that the broader flow is up.

Review

No trade

Under Scenario B, I was waiting for the turning down (making lower highs) to stop and for price to move like the red arrow, but in the end it just kept falling.
There was no chance to sell under Scenario C either, and price came back with a V-shaped reversal, so I ended the day in wait-and-see mode.