2025/09/09 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

The bigger picture is a buying flow, but the 1-hour chart is unclear.
On the 15-minute chart, I see it as a sell until price gets above Line A.
It’s a tricky situation to trade.

Scenario A
If price breaks above Line A, I see it as a buy.
The negatives are that we’re near the highs on the daily chart, and the 4-hour chart is turning down (making lower highs).
I’ll be looking for longs while keeping those points in mind.
Target is around 200.6

Scenario B
There was a selling opportunity right around noon JST (03:00 UTC), and it’s still possible to look for sells from around Line A.
Initial target is Line C at 199.5.

Scenario C
If price breaks below Line C, I’ll treat it as a move toward filling the gap and follow it by selling the rally.
Target is around 199–199.2

Review

It played out as Scenario B.

After the bounce off Line C, you could go short at ○1, selling the rally.
If you look at the lower timeframe, you can see the short comes in where price stalled and formed a small range.
After that it dropped sharply in one go, but that was just luck.
I think the cause was something fundamental.

Since price broke through the target, I waited and saw for a bit, then took profit where it made a bullish shift. 67 pips