2025/09/11 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

With yesterday’s rise, I’m thinking the 4-hour retracement may be in.
From here I’m expecting a move toward 199, but the daily chart still looks like it wants to go higher.
Yesterday was a bullish candle, after all.
It’s still a tricky market to trade.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the current range, it heads for the high once more.
The target is around yesterday’s high of 199.8.
It might be more natural for this move to form a double top on the 4-hour chart before dropping.

Scenario B
I’m looking to sell the current 15-minute range.
The plan is to aim for shorts around Line A, but it’s not a particularly easy setup to sell.
I recommend waiting for a clear pattern before entering.
On the current chart, the lows also seem to be turning up (making higher lows), so it’s better to wait a bit longer.
Target is 199

Scenario C
If price breaks below the pink line, there’s no real support left, so I think selling is the only option.
That said, there isn’t much room to run.
The target is 199, but the 1-hour recent low is 198.8, and if you see the daily chart making a bearish shift as well, a further drop is also possible.
Even if it falls further, I’d rebuild the strategy at that point, so 199 is the first target.

Review

It played out as Scenario A.

Long from the red circle, the pullback after the breakout above the range.
Price reached the target, but since it was rising in a wave pattern, I continued to hold.
I took profit when the short-term uptrend broke down ahead of the data release. 30 pips