2025/10/03 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

The daily chart is forming a retracement. The 4-hour is near the range high, and the 1-hour has already made a bullish shift.
For day trading, I’d like to wait for a pullback and buy.

Scenario A
If price breaks Line A, the 4-hour will also switch to a bullish bias.
I see the daily retracement target at around 199, so the idea is to aim for a rise to around there.
Going long after price clears Line A doesn’t leave much room to run.
If a deep pullback comes after price clears Line A, I think that would be a good opportunity.

Scenario B
It’s unclear whether price will break through Line A, but this scenario assumes it will form another pullback before that.
If Line B holds as support, I’d like to buy.
The target is the recent high at 198.6, and if that’s broken, 199, the same as Scenario A

Scenario C
If price breaks below Line B, I’ll look to sell for now.
However, this scenario is about catching a short-term drop.
Basically, the 1-hour is still in a buy trend, and this is about taking a dip within it.
The target is around 198.

Once price reaches around 198, I think it’s fine to buy again.

Review

It was Scenario C.

Price moved exactly as described in the morning scenario.
After the break below, I went short on the retracement at circle ①.
The target of 198 was reached, so I took profit right away. 20 pips
As I wrote in the morning, the 1-hour chart (H1) is still in an uptrend, so this is the kind of spot where price turns back up.

After that, I went long at circle ②, where the lower timeframe formed a double bottom and higher lows.
This long is meant to catch the rise from the pullback on the 1-hour chart (H1).
Profit-taking falls late at night, so it’s up to you, but I took profit when price reached the pink line, which looked like a key level. 40 pips
You could also hold toward the daily chart retracement target mentioned in Scenario A, but in that case you would take profit where price formed a double top around 5 am JST (20:00 UTC the previous day).