2025/04/01 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/04/01 is a bullish bias.

Yesterday the downtrend stalled, and price moved in a way that made me wonder whether it had reversed to the upside.
Price is currently making new highs, so my bias is bullish.
However, the blue line at 194 yen is a candidate level for selling the rally on the 4-hour chart (H4), and on the current chart it looks a bit like a double top on the 15-minute chart (M15).

Given the above, today’s strategy is:

Scenario A
Price breaks through 194 yen and continues higher.
I’ll look to buy the pullback after the break above.
That said, I don’t think it will simply rally straight from a pullback forming on the daily chart.
It’s more likely to drop once more somewhere, form a double bottom on the 4-hour chart (H4) level, and then rise.
So in Scenario A, I won’t be greedy with the target: around 194.4.

Scenario B
Price is currently starting to look like it’s making lower highs, so it’s hard to buy right away.
I’ll wait a bit longer and consider an entry if the range low looks solid.

Scenario C
If price breaks below the current price zone, then from a day trading bias I’ll sell for now.
I’d see it as the drop to form the 4-hour chart (H4) level double bottom I mentioned in Scenario A.
The target is around 193.3.

Review

It dropped.
○1, the retracement after price broke below the range low I anticipated in the morning strategy, is a valid short entry.
However, price didn’t follow through to the downside afterward, so it’s best to exit with a small profit somewhere in the circled price zone.

The next opportunity is ○2.
It’s the retracement after a clear break lower, and since it’s an S/R flip bounce at the range low I had drawn in the morning, it’s an easy entry.
Closing near the pink line, the recent low, after price drops following entry is fine, but if you’re watching the lower timeframe closely, the price action lets you hold.
If you hold, it’s fine to take profit when price bounces off the next blue line down. 110pips