2025/03/31 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/03/31
Overall, my bias is bearish. Friday’s selling has carried over, and the pair is still falling at the start of the week.
That said, on the bigger picture, price is in a zone that acts as support on the daily chart.
Today looks like a day to see whether the 193.3 line holds as support.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the 193.8 line, I’ll switch to a bullish bias for now on a day-trading level.
I’ll look for a long while watching where the pullback forms.
Target is around 194.3.

Scenario B
Price fails to get above 193.8 and ranges.
I’ll sell from around the range high, but watch out for price failing to make a new low and bouncing.
This is a price zone that is a candidate for buying the dip on the daily chart.
Given the risk of a reversal higher, the target is around 193.3.
Rather than selling on the first touch,

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below.
For shorts from here, selling a retracement on the 15-minute level risks getting caught in a false breakout.
So I don’t rush into an entry, I’ll watch for the following two patterns.

• Enter after a clear break below, once a retracement wave visible on the 1-hour chart (H1) has formed
• Enter after a double top forms on a 15-minute-level retracement

Target is around 192.4.

Review

It was a tricky day.
The decline since Friday stalled, and the market couldn’t decide whether it would turn higher, so price action was indecisive.

At ○1, after the New York session opened, it was fine to switch the bias to buying, but the red horizontal line acts as resistance, so the risk-reward was questionable.
Even if you had entered, there’s a good chance you would have been stopped out on the drop that followed.

After that, ○2, where price broke above resistance and it turned into short-term S/R, was a valid long entry.
However, the stop distance is fairly large here too, so the risk-reward wasn’t great.
If you had entered, you would have exited with a small profit when price stalled at the blue line at 194 yen and came back down.
Maybe 25 pips at most.