2025/03/20 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/03/20
As for the overall picture, the daily chart is in an uptrend.
Right now, the market is in the process of forming a pullback within that rise.
Today’s strategy for day trading is to catch the decline down to where that pullback forms.

Scenario A
A pattern where price looks like it’s going to fall, then turns back up.
I don’t think this is very likely, though.
After last night’s FOMC result, the flow has changed, so I expect it to drop to some extent.
If going for a long on the rise, I’ll enter only after confirming support around 193.3.
Target is around 193.8.

Scenario B
A pattern where price ranges on the 15-minute chart and then drops again.
This is the one I really want to go after.
Target is around 192.5.

Scenario C
In this case, depending on how the chart looks at the time, there’s a high chance I’ll need to rework my short-term strategy.
The target is around 192.5, the same as Scenario B.

Review

I’d like to call this Scenario B, but by the time I posted the morning trade strategy, price had already made its retracement and started to fall.
The best entry was a short at ○1, the retracement after the turn lower on the 5-minute chart (M5).
For take profit, the blue line around 192.5 is fine, as per the scenario.
In the end, price fell further to around the next line down, but that price zone is a spot where a bounce can be expected, so taking profit without chasing it further is OK. 50 pips

Also, the red circle after that corresponds to Scenario C in the morning trade strategy.
However, the target was close and the risk-reward wasn’t good, so I passed on it.
As it turned out, price fell another leg lower, so it would have made a profit, though.