2025/03/19 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

This morning I have a short-term bearish bias.
However, on the 1-hour chart (H1), price is at what looks like a pullback area.
I’m watching to see whether it forms a pullback here and rises again, or drops down to a 4-hour chart (H4) level pullback.
Here are today’s three strategies.

Scenario A
A rise from the 1-hour chart (H1) pullback.
I’ll go long around 194.4, targeting the support/resistance (S/R).
The target is around 195.
However, I also need to allow for price losing momentum around 194.7, the recent high, and dropping.

Scenario B
If price fails to break above the current range and starts turning down (making lower highs), I’ll go short.
In this case, the target is around 194–193.8.
That said, all the other timeframes are pointing up.
I don’t think there’s any need to force a trade on Scenario B.

Scenario C
Basically, I see selling as likely if price drops below 194, but on the 15-minute level it still looks like it’s within the range.
If I sell, I want to target the retracement after a break below around 193.8.
The target is around 193.3.

Review

Price drifted around with no clear direction, and with the FOMC coming up, there was no need to force any trades.
If I had to take something, it would probably be the two spots circled in red.

For the first red circle, seeing the momentum of the sharp drop, the idea is to short where price retraced a bit on the 5-minute chart (M5) but then started falling again from the line around 194.
Ideally, you would take profit when the move stalls at the next line down.

After that, price rose again, giving a long from where it found support at the line around 194.
Take profit here on reaching the area near the recent high.

After that, there was no need to trade given the caution ahead of the data release.
It was a day that didn’t play out the way I pictured in the morning trade strategy.