2025/03/18 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

The price rose.
Right now the daily chart and every timeframe below it are in an uptrend, so today’s strategy continues from yesterday with a bullish bias.
That said, at the day-trading level there can be deeper pullbacks, so if that happens, be careful not to forget the higher timeframe market context and let your bias waver.

Scenario A
The upward momentum doesn’t fade and the price keeps rising.
In this case, I’ll go long on an S/R play around 194.
The target is around 194.7.

Scenario B
The price ranges for a while before rising.
In this case, I need to watch the entry timing carefully.
In particular, the red-band zone is a price zone where both selling and buying are possible, so be careful not to get whipsawed.

Scenario C
If the price drops below 193.3, my bias turns bearish for the time being at the day-trading level.
The idea is to short the drop that forms the pullback on the higher timeframe.
The target is around 192.8.

Review

It went up.
The best trade was a long from ○1, riding Scenario A.
For precise timing, the spot is where you start to see higher lows on the 5-minute chart (M5).
The 20 MA was also providing support, so I think it was an easy point to buy.

If you missed the entry at ○1, ○2 is also fine.
On the 15-minute chart (M15) it looks like it dropped sharply in a single candle, so it might be a bit hard to get in, but if you were watching carefully you could enter.

Then, as per Scenario A, take profit on reaching around 194.7.
Even if you got greedy and held, I think you could take profit once it started to look like a double top turning down (making lower highs). 70 pips

After that it fell, giving a short-term bearish bias.
However, there was also a data release just after 10 pm JST (13:00 UTC), so I feel there was no need to force a trade.