2025/03/11 GBP/JPY Strategy
Looks like the flow today is to the downside. I’m watching whether it breaks below 188.2.
For the near-term strategy, I have the three scenarios shown in the image.
Scenario A
A pattern where price rises first and puts in a fairly large retracement.
I’m expecting a retracement on the 4-hour chart (H4) level and will look for a long.
Target is around 190.0.
Scenario B
A pattern where price hovers in the 189.5 to 188.9 range and then drops.
I’m looking to short near the range high at 189.5.
For the short, the target is 188.2.
Scenario C
A pattern where price keeps falling from here.
If it drops smoothly I’ll need to update the scenario, but for now I’m looking to short off the support/resistance (S/R) around 188.9.
The target in this case is also around 188.2, but I think there’s a chance it falls even further from there.
Review
Price went up. This played out as Scenario A, but since the first buy would come from slightly below the line, you might hesitate a little on that one.
After that, price reacted again at the red support/resistance (S/R) line. To be more precise, I think it’s fine to buy on the small pullback where the 5-minute chart (M5) made higher lows and turned up. ○1
However, this is still more about catching a retracement within the selling flow, so take profit at the 190.0 line as planned in the morning strategy. 40pips
After that, price formed another pullback, and you go long again from where the decline stopped at the 189.5 line. ○2
This one is also about catching the higher timeframe retracement, but it’s an easier spot to buy than the ○1 entry.
If you got in here, price rose afterward without any pullback, so you could have taken it up to around 191. 130pips
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
